본 연구는 2006년 1월부터 2022년 10월까지 아파트매매실거래가격지수와 2011년 7월부터 2022년 10월까지 산출된 주택매매시장소비심리지수를 포함한 거시경제변수들을 사용하여 주택가격과 거시경제변수들의 영향을 분석한다. 먼저 주택가격 변동의 특징을 단변량 분석으로 검토한 후, 범위를 확장하여 주택가격 변동에 영향을 주는 거시경제 변수 및 심리지수의 관계를 다변량 분석으로 검토한다.첫째, 주택가격 변동의 특성을 검토한다. 거시경제변수인 주택가격은 추세(trend)와 순환(cycle)을 포함한 시계열 자료이므로 추세·순환 분해분석으로 가격변동의 특성을 파악할 수 있다. 주택가격을 위한 변수로 아파트매매실거래가격지수를 선정하고, 분석모형은 UC모형과 BN모형을 사용한다. 아울러 두 모형의 분석결과를 확인함으로써, 어느 모형이 국내 주택가격의 변동을 더욱 잘 설명하는지도 살펴본다.
This study analyzes the relationship between housing prices and macroeconomic variables using the apartment transaction price index from January 2006 to October 2022 and the consumer sentiment index for the housing market calculated from July 2011 to October 2022. First, the characteristics of housing price fluctuations are examined through univariate analysis. Then, the analysis is expanded to multivariate analysis to examine the relationship between housing price fluctuations and macroeconomic variables and sentiment indices.First, the characteristics of housing price fluctuations are examined. Since housing prices, as a macroeconomic variable, are time series data that include trends and cycles, the characteristics of price fluctuations can be determined through trend-cycle decomposition analysis. The apartment transaction price index is used as the variable for housing prices, and the analysis is conducted using the UC model and BN model. Additionally, by examining the results of both models, we can determine which model better explains the fluctuations in domestic housing prices.Second, the influence of investor sentiment and macroeconomic variables on housing prices is examined. The macroeconomic variables used for analysis in this study include the Consumer Price Index, stock price index, CD interest rate, and money supply. To analyze the impact of investor sentiment on housing prices, the Consumer Sentiment Index in the housing market is included as a variable. The VECM model is used for the analysis.