Background: The health emergency declaration owing to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has drawn attention toward nosocomial transmission. The transmission of the disease varies depending on the environmental conditions. Saliva is a recognized SARS-CoV-2 reservoir in infected individuals. Therefore, exposure to fluids during dental procedures leads to a high risk of contagion. Objective: This study aimed to develop an infection risk prediction model for COVID-19 based on an analysis of the dynamic behavior of aerosol particles generated during dental procedures. Materials and methods: The dispersion of aerosol particles during dental aerosol-generating procedures (AGPs) performed on phantoms was evaluated using colored saliva. The gravity-deposited aerosol particles were registered using filter paper within the perimeter of the phantom head and the settled particles were recorded in standardized photographs. Digital images were processed to analyze the stained area and the drops dimensions. A logistic regression model was built with the variables ventilation, distance from the mouth, instrument used, area of the mouth treated, and location within the perimeter area. Results: The largest percentage of aerosol particles ranged from 1 to 5 µm. The maximum settlement range from the mouth of the phantom head was 320 cm, with a high-risk cut-off distance of 78 cm. Ventilation, distance, instrument used, area of the mouth being treated, and location within the perimeter showed association with the amount of aerosol particles. These variables were used for constructing a scale to determine the risk of exposure to aerosol particles in dentistry within an infection risk prediction model. Conclusion: Contamination by disseminated aerosol particles represents a risk for the dental staff. Thus, it is advisable to improve ventilation and use biosafety measures. The need to implement new clinical and educational strategies was evident. This model is useful for predicting the risk of exposure to COVID-19 in dental practice.