Disclosed herein are methods and systems for detecting a risk of payment default. In various embodiments, the systems/methods receive mortgage data associated with a mortgage application of an applicant, generate one or more models based on data related to historical mortgage transactions and determine a payment default risk score based at least partly on the one or more generated models, the mortgage data associated with the mortgage application, and the credit data related to the applicant. In another embodiment, a system is disclosed for selecting mortgage applications for further fraud evaluation based on the determined risks of early payment default associated with the mortgage applications and performing the fraud evaluation on those selected mortgage applications.