采用定额法和GM(1,1)模型对河南省2030年的需水量进行预测,并设计了保持现状型、经济发展型、节水型和综合发展型四个发展情景进行分析.结果表明:四种情境下的需水量分别为253.7亿m3、278.5亿m3、220.2亿m3和260.7亿m3;农业灌溉用水占全省用水量近55%,提升农业灌溉水的利用效率对改善全省的水资源利用效率有巨大作用,同时,调整产业结构也可以提高水资源利用率;综合考虑四种发展情景,河南省未来的发展趋势应向综合发展型社会靠拢,使经济、环境和社会协同发展;需水量受人口数量、生产总值、产业结构等多种因素的协同影响.
The quota method and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the water demand of Henan province in 2030,and four development scenarios were designed:status quo,economic development,water-saving and comprehensive development.The results show that:the water demand in the four situations is 253.7 billion m3,278.5 billion m3,220.2 billion m3 and 260.7 billion m3;agricultural irrigation water accounts for nearly 50%of the province's water consumption,so improving the utilization efficiency of agricultural irrigation water plays a huge role in improving the utilization efficiency of water resources in the province.In addition,adjusting the industrial structure can also improve the utilization rate of water resources;considering the future develop-ment scenarios of Henan Province should be closer to the comprehensive development society,environment and society;water demand is affected by various factors such as population,gross product and industrial structure.