在地下咸水层封存过程中,CO2的溶解反应将会影响其封存容量和稳定性,并对周围环境和生态系统造成不利影响.为合理分析CO2在地下咸水层中的溶解性能,基于马尔科夫理论对灰色GM(1,1)模型进行优化,构建CO2溶解性能灰色预测模型.通过预测单因素影响下CO2在地下咸水层中的溶解性能,科学分析模型预测值与实测值的平均相对误差.结果表明:通过压强、温度及矿化度分析不同影响因素对CO2在水中溶解性能,得出CO2溶解性能灰色马尔科夫优化预测模型预测值与实测值的平均相对误差分别为0.37%、17.73%、0.21%;与灰色GM(1,1)模型相比,预测结果的平均相对误差分别降低了0.35、1.56、3.41百分点,CO2溶解性能灰色预测模型预测精度更高.研究成果为CO2在地下咸水层中的溶解封存提供数据支撑.
During sequestration process in subsurface saline aquifers,CO2 dissolution reaction affects its storage ca-pacity and stability,causing adverse impact on surrounding environment and ecosystem.To rationally analyze disso-lution behavior of CO2 in subsurface saline aquifers,grey model GM(1,1)is optimized based on Markov theory to build grey forecast model for CO2 solubility.The model forecasts single-factor impacted CO2 solubility in subsurface saline aquifers,scientifically analyzing average relative error between predicted and measured values.The results show that,analysis of different impact factors of pressure,temperature and salinity obtains average relative errors between predicted values of grey Markov forecast model and measured values of CO2 solubility are 0.37%,17.73%and 0.21%,respectively.Compared to grey GM(1,1)model,grey forecast model gets forecast results with average relative error reduced by 0.35,1.56 and 3.41 percentage points,respectively,demonstrating higher accuracy of CO2 solubility.The research provides data support for CO2 dissolution storage in subsurface saline aquifers.