为了助力县域级城市顺利推进碳达峰工作,以江西省能源为输出型的某县为案例,通过分析其能源发展、消耗、碳排放现状和基于LEAP模型构建碳达峰基准、达峰、低碳情景来研究县域碳达峰实施路径.结果显示,可再生资源丰富的县域,在基准情景下不采取政策干预不能如期达峰,在达峰情景下可在2030年达峰,达峰的重点在工业、服务业等3个重点部门和电力、柴油等2种能源品种,这需要在全县通过发展以消纳可再生能源为主的智能微电网、实施"新能源+储能"、招引用电大项目等提高绿色电力消纳能力,优先发展生物能源替代化石燃料项目、可再生能源产业链等绿色低碳产业及倡导绿色低碳生活习惯等达峰路径.基于县域实际提出符合特色的碳达峰实施路径,能为县域级城市顺利完成"双碳"目标提供参考.
In order to assist county-level cities in smoothly promoting carbon peaking work,this article takes a county in Jiangxi province,which is an energy output type,as a case study.By analyzing its energy development,consumption,and carbon emissions status,and based on the long range energy alternatives planning(LEAP)model,constructing carbon peaking benchmarks,peaking,and low-carbon scenarios,the implementation path of county-level carbon peaking is studied.The results show that counties with abundant renewable resources cannot reach their peak on schedule without policy intervention under the baseline scenario.In the peak scenario,it can reach its peak by 2030,with a focus on three key sectors including industry and service industry,as well as two types of energy sources including electricity and diesel.This requires the development of intelligent microgrids that mainly consume renewable energy and the implementation of"new energy+energy storage"throughout the county Attracting and referencing projects such as the National Radio and Television University to enhance the capacity for green electricity consumption,prioritizing the development of green and low-carbon industries such as bioenergy substitution for fossil fuel projects,renewable energy industry chains,and advocating for green and low-carbon lifestyle habits to reach peak paths.Based on the actual situation in the county,a carbon peak implementation path that conforms to the characteristics is proposed,which can provide reference for county-level cities to successfully achieve the"dual carbon"goals.