新型电力系统建设背景下,海量新能源并网对现有电网调度运行模式带来巨大挑战.为解决新能源功率波动性和不确定性对电网实时功率平衡带来的失负荷风险,基于风险抑制理论提出电网弹性运行模型(risk limiting based resilient operation,RLB),并针对求解概率型约束的难题给出解决方案,提升电网运行弹性.通过推导RLB的 3 种中间态模型及其解析解,提出基于中间态模型迭代的RLB求解算法,并对其全局最优性给出严格证明.基于IEEE 6节点和 25981 节点实际区域电网算例,分析了系统灵活性、预测精度和系统弹性之间的关系,指出提升新型电力系统运行弹性的前提是足够的系统灵活性和预测精度.
Under the background of construction of the new power system,the integration of a large amount of renewable energy into the existing grid poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation mode of power grid.In order to address the risk of load shedding caused by the power fluctuation and uncertainty of renewable energy on real-time power balance in the grid,we propose a resilient operation model for the grid based on risk limiting theory(RLB).To solve the problem of solving probabilistic constraints,a solution is provided to enhance the operational resilience of the grid.By deriving three intermediate state models of RLB and their analytical solutions,we present an iterative RLB solution algorithm based on intermediate state models and provide a rigorous proof of its global optimality.Finally,based on the IEEE 6-node system and an actual 25981-node regional grid examples,we analyze the relationship between system flexibility,prediction accuracy,and system resilience,and it is concluded that improving the operational resilience of the new power system is premised on sufficient system flexibility and prediction accuracy.