中国-东盟贸易区(China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,以下简称“CAFTA”)历时8年建成,是中国与其他国家或地区启动的第一个自由贸易区,也成为仅次于欧盟和北美自由贸易区的全球第三大市场。在考察中国与东盟的贸易历史和现状基础上运用单边引力模型,对中国与东盟之间的贸易进行定量分析,并引入滞后效应(lagged effects)得到经过扩展之后的引力模型,利用该模型对中国与东盟之间的贸易前景进行分析预测,提出:应充分发挥双边贸易的互补性,发挥政府的主导作用,形成自由贸易区与国内的良性互动,构建有利的外部环境,实现开放市场间更密切的合作。
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (referred to as CAFTA in short) took 8 years to come into being, which is the first free trad area between China and other countries of regions and is the third largest market second only to Euro-pean Union and North American Free Trade Area. In order to analyze the trade between China and ASEAN, we first il-lustrate the features of the trade. And then start to use the Gravity Model to see how the factors influence the trade in a quantitative aspect. Finally, we add the “lagged effects” into the equation to have an expansive and more explainable model and use it to have a prediction.