选取某石化污水处理厂作为研究案例,采用碳足迹法对该厂的碳排放量进行核算.运用长期能源可替代规划体系模型结合情景分析法,预测4种情景下该厂的未来碳排放量.结果表明,该厂的碳排放量在基准情景和低减排情景下均为逐年增加的趋势,在2060年分别增加118%和75%;中减排情景下,碳排放量出现先增加后减少的趋势,峰值出现于2025年,至2060年降低45%;高减排情景下,碳排放量急剧减少,至2050年又略微增加,至2060年降低约92%.
A petrochemical sewage treatment plant was selected as a case study,the carbon footprint method used to calculate the carbon emissions of the sewage treatment plant,and the long range energy alternatives planning system model combined with the scenario analysis method used to predict the future carbon emissions of the sewage treatment plant under four scenarios.The results were as follows,the car-bon emission of the sewage treatment plant increased year by year in both the baseline scenario and car-bon emission reduction scenario,and the carbon emission could increase by 118%and 75%in 2060,respectively.Under the medium emission reduction scenario,carbon emissions first increased and then decreased,with the peak in 2025 and then reduced by about 45%in 2060.While the carbon emissions would be sharply reduced and then slightly increased after 2050,the emissions would be reduced by about 92%in 2060 under the scenario of high emission reduction.