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요약정보
基于系统动力学的高铁客运需求预测 / Ridership Forecast of High-speed Railway Based on the System Dynamics
Resource Type
Academic Journal
Authors
牟振华
;
李克鹏
;
陈艳艳
;
闫康礼
;
李想
;
申栋夫
;
MOU Zhen-hua
;
LI Ke-peng
;
CHEN Yan-yan
;
YAN Kang-li
;
LI Xiang
;
SHEN Dong-fu
Source
科学技术与工程 / Science Technology and Engineering
. 21(1):387-394
Subject
系统动力学
高铁
客运需求
预测
Language
Chinese
ISSN
1671-1815
Online Access
Find it @ DONGA
초록
为了确定中国高铁客运需求的发展规模和规律,通过分析与高铁客运需求相关的经济、人口、设施供给及民航竞争的影响因素,建立了高铁客运需求的系统动力学模型.经过对既有历史数据的验证分析,证明系统动力学模型的有效性,且预测精度优于传统方法.根据经济人口及出行要素设定了三种增长情景,预测发现,中国未来不同情境发展下的高铁客运需求将持续上升,高铁客运周转量2024年突破1万亿人公里,高铁出行量2026年突破30亿人次.基于以上结论,提出了中国高铁建设、票价及服务方面的建议.
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