针对影响ND火山岩油藏水平井产能的主要因素不确定,以及常规的水平井产能计算公式预测产能偏高、误差大等问题,依据ND火山岩油藏水平井体积压裂地质、工程及动态数据,采用灰色关联分析法对体积压裂后初期产能的影响因素进行分析,并在此基础上,对单井产能进行归一化处理后,再应用灰色理论累加生成,进而采用多元线性回归法预测油井压裂后的初期产能.结果表明:影响体积压裂后初期产能的前4个因素依次为入井砂量、钻遇油层厚度、入井液量、压裂段数;经归一化处理后累加生成并结合多元线性回归预测体积压裂后的初期产能,比传统的直接多元线性回归法预测精度更高.此项研究为类似油藏的水平井产能预测提供了一种有效方法.
The main factors that affect the productivity of horizontal wells in ND volcanic reservoir are uncer-tain,and the conventional productivity calculation formulas for horizontal wells predict high productivity with large error. Based on the geological,engineering and dynamic data of volume fracturing of horizontal wells in ND volcanic reservoir,the influencing factors of initial productivity after volume fracturing were analyzed by grey correlation analysis.On this basis,normalized productivity of single well was accumulated by grey theory, and then multiple linear regression method was used to predict the initial productivity after fracturing.The results show that the first four factors influencing the initial productivity after volume fracturing are the amount of sand in the well,the drilling rate of the oil layer,the amount of the well fluid and the number of fracturing stage.After normalization,the initial productivity predicted by multiple linear regression after volume fracturing is more ac-curate than that predicted by traditional direct multiple linear regression method.This study provides an effective method for predicting productivity of horizontal wells in similar reservoirs.