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요약정보
北京地区蚊虫密度变化气象预测方法研究 / Study on Meteorological Prediction Method of Mosquito Density in Beijing
Resource Type
Academic Journal
Authors
姜江
;
叶彩华
;
刘美德
;
尤焕苓
;
乔媛
;
夏江江
;
佟颖
;
张勇
;
阎婷
;
李秋红
;
刘婷
;
周小洁
;
曾晓芃
;
JIANG Jiang
;
YE Caihua
;
LIU Meide
;
YOU Huanling
;
QIAO Yuan
;
XIA Jiangjiang
;
TONG Ying
;
ZHANG Yong
;
YAN Ting
;
LI Qiuhong
;
LIU Ting
;
ZHOU Xiaojie
;
ZENG Xiaofan
Source
气象科技 / Meteorological Science and Technology
. 50(4):584-593
Subject
北京
蚊虫密度
机器学习预测
Language
Chinese
ISSN
1671-6345
Online Access
Find it @ DONGA
초록
本文利用蚊虫密度监测数据及气象资料,分析了 2009-2019年北京市及其14个区的蚊虫密度与气象条件间的关系,并基于多元回归、支持向量机和随机森林3种经典的机器学习回归方法进行了蚊虫密度预测.结果表明:北京地区蚊虫密度呈周期性的波动,各区多年平均值在0.35~2.54只/(灯·h)之间,高峰值集中出现在7月中旬到8月中旬,与北京地区气温最高和降水最集中的时期非常吻合.采用机器学习方法,尝试了 4种输入因子方案,并利用均方根误差和平均绝对百分误差两种方法进行预测效果检验,显示蚊虫数据相对较稳定的地区,如平谷、门头沟、大兴、海淀等地,预测效果相对更优.在3种方法中,支持向量机方法对2019年5月下旬的预测效果非常好,而多元回归与随机森林的预测效果则在2019年5-10月整体上表现得更为稳定.
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