The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios
- Resource Type
- Authors
- Daniel Quiggin; Richard A. Buswell
- Source
- Energy. 98:253-270
- Subject
- Demand reduction
020209 energy
Mechanical Engineering
Probabilistic logic
02 engineering and technology
Building and Construction
010501 environmental sciences
Environmental economics
01 natural sciences
Pollution
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Supply and demand
General Energy
Balance (accounting)
Electrification
Range (aeronautics)
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
Economics
Operations management
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Energy (signal processing)
Reliability (statistics)
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Civil and Structural Engineering
- Language
- ISSN
- 0360-5442
Published UK 2050 energy scenarios specify a range of decarbonised supply side technologies combined with electrification of transportation and heating. These scenarios are designed to meet CO 2 reduction targets whilst maintaining reliability of supply. Current models of the UK energy system either make significant assumptions about the role of demand side management or do not carry out the analysis at sufficient resolution and hence determining the impact of heat electrification on the reliability of supply of the scenarios is not possible. This paper presents a new model that estimates national supply and demand, hour-by-hour. Calculations are based on 11 years of weather data which allows a probabilistic assessment of deficit frequency throughout the day. It is found that achieving demand reduction targets are far more important than meeting electrification targets and that significant adoption of CHP is most likely to deliver a viable energy future for the UK.