possibly by as much as 30 percent (Kalter et al.). But Bovine somatotropin (BST), a new technology how will attrition occur? Will reduction in cow capable of enhancing a cow's ability to produce milk numbers be accomplished by small farmers' leaving by 7-23 percent, is expected to be available for dairying altogether, or will the impact be spread commercial use soon. Ex ante survey procedures are more evenly? used to determine the potential effect of BST on the Questions about how BST will affect the size size distribution of dairy farms in the Southeast. distribution of dairy farms are important for several Results of logit analysis indicate a positive link reasons. First, because BST is a variable input, the between farm size and (1) farmers' knowledge of answer to the size-bias question a priori is not obBST and (2) intentions to adopt early, suggesting vious. The resulting ambiguity has led to differing BST will not be scale neutral. An estimated "price assumptions by researchers about the rate of adopelasticity" of-1.8 to -2.1 indicates an elastic demand tion of BST by size of farm. Fallert et al., for exfor the input. Price, therefore, may be an effective ample, assume that all size categories will adopt instrument for attenuating the scale bias. BST at the same rate. Kalter et al., in contrast, assume that larger farmers will adopt first. Consurprisingly, differ substantially between the two technology adoption, ex ante studies. surveys Second, identifying the size bias of BST (if any), BA} n and the reasons for the size bias, will shed light on Bovine somatotropin, an injectable protein the likely pattern and rate of BST adoption. Such capable of enhancing a cow's ability to produce milk insights will help policy makers anticipate the longby 7-23 percent (Kronfield), is expected to be avail- run effects of the technology, permitting more inable for commercial use soon. Because of the un- formed policy choices. For example, if BST favors precedented yield-enhancing potential of this larger farms, policymakers may want to consider technology and the difficulties the diary industry has programs that help small- and medium-sized dairies had with surpluses, bovine somatotropin (BST) is adapt. Finally, Kuchler and McClelland maintain controversial. that the empirical evidence showing a link between One aspect of that controversy is the effect of BST farm size and early adoptionia key factor in deteron the size distribution of dairy farms (Comstock; mining scale bias-is scant or nonexistent for U.S. Buttel and Geisler). The demand for dairy products agriculture. is price inelastic, meaning that BST-induced The major objective of the research reported in this declines in price will have minimal effect on con- paper is to determine the potential scale bias of BST. sumption.I As domestic consumers are unable to The objective is accomplished by analyzing data on absorb the additional supply of milk made possible farmers' intentions to adopt BST obtained through by BST, and increased exports are an unlikely an ex ante survey procedure which elicits adoption prospect, cow numbers will need to be reduced, intentions and related information from a group of 1 As pointed out by a reviewer, non-price factors such as consumers' attitudes toward milk produced with BST might also affect consumption, offsetting and perhaps negating the effects of any price decline. In this case, the adjustment problems arising from the