Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy
- Resource Type
- Authors
- Annette B.G. Janssen; Erik Jeppesen; Helen Woods; Stephen C. Ives; Brian J. Huser; David G. Angeler; Alena S. Gsell; Sarah J. Burthe; Bryan M. Spears; Martin Søndergaard; Saara Olsen; Linda May; Stephen J. Thackeray; Heather Moorhouse; Francis Daunt; Thomas Davidson; Dag O. Hessen; Martyn N. Futter; Laurence Carvalho; Eleanor B. Mackay; Rita Adrian
- Source
- Nature Ecology and Evolution, 1, 1616-1624. Springer Science+Business Media
Nature Ecology & Evolution 1 (2017)
Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1, 1616-1624
Spears, B M, Futter, M N, Jeppesen, E, Huser, B J, Ives, S, Davidson, T A, Adrian, R, Angeler, D G, Burthe, S J, Carvalho, L, Daunt, F, Gsell, A S, Hessen, D O, Janssen, A B G, Mackay, E B, May, L, Moorhouse, H, Olsen, S, Søndergaard, M, Woods, H & Thackeray, S J 2017, ' Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy ', Nature Ecology and Evolution, vol. 1, pp. 1616-1624 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1
- Subject
- 0106 biological sciences
Conservation of Natural Resources
Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management
Environmental change
Ecology (disciplines)
media_common.quotation_subject
Stability (learning theory)
Biology
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Ecological resilience
Life Science
Empirical evidence
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Ecosystem
media_common
Ecological stability
Conservation of Water Resources
Ecology
010604 marine biology & hydrobiology
ecosystem ecology
Aquatische Ecologie en Waterkwaliteitsbeheer
Lakes
Risk analysis (engineering)
international
conjunction fallacy
Water Systems and Global Change
Psychological resilience
Conjunction fallacy
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::570 Biowissenschaften
Biologie::577 Ökologie
- Language
- ISSN
- 2397-334X
There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.