The causes of the present recession are generally misunderstood. While it is undoubtedly the case that the growth of the world economy has been reduced, this has, as yet, had little effect on the UK. Exports have been surprisingly buoyant, benefiting perhaps from orders obtained when the pound was at a much lower level. Detailed forecasts, as well as additional analyses of the latest Scottish economic data, is provided to better understand Scotland's current economic predicament.