Quantitative Analysis on Risk Influencing Factors in the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River.
- Resource Type
- Academic Journal
- Authors
- Zhang J; Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTS Center), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; He A; Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTS Center), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; Fan C; Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTS Center), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; Yan X; Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTS Center), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.; Soares CG; Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal.
- Source
- Publisher: Blackwell Publishers Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 8109978 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1539-6924 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 02724332 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Risk Anal Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE; MEDLINE
- Subject
- Language
- English
Quantitative risk influencing factors (RIFs) are proposed, using the Conjugate Bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River over five years from 2012 to 2016. The accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. The Bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different RIFs. The riskiest segment of Jiangsu Waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. The results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk.
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