• Childhood vaccination has decreased during the pandemic, potentially leading to increased pneumococcal disease. • As a result, changes to older adult pneumococcal vaccination recommendations could be considered. • Plausible pneumococcal illness increases do not favor heightened PCV13 use in older adults. • Current vaccination recommendations for older adults should not change based on pediatric vaccination rates. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing declines in childhood immunization rates. We examined potential COVID-19-related changes in pediatric 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) use, subsequent impact on childhood and adult pneumococcal disease rates, and how those changes might affect the favorability of PCV13 use in non-immunocompromised adults aged ≥65 years. A Markov model estimated pediatric disease resulting from decreased PCV13 use in children aged <5 years; absolute decreases from 10 to 50% for 1–2 years duration were examined, assuming no catch-up vaccination and that decreased vaccination led to proportionate increases in PCV13 serotype pneumococcal disease in children and seniors. Integrating pediatric model output into a second Markov model examining 65-year-olds, we estimated the cost effectiveness of older adult pneumococcal vaccination strategies while accounting for potential epidemiologic changes from decreased pediatric vaccination. One year of 10–50% absolute decreases in PCV13 use in <5-year-olds increased pneumococcal disease by an estimated 4–19% in seniors; 2 years of decreased use increased senior rates by 8–38%. In seniors, a >53% increase in pneumococcal disease was required to favor PCV13 use in non-immunocompromised seniors at a $200,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained threshold, which corresponded to absolute decreases in pediatric PCV13 vaccination of >50% over a 2-year period. In sensitivity analyses, senior PCV13 vaccination was unfavorable if absolute decreases in pediatric PCV13 receipt were within plausible ranges, despite model assumptions favoring PCV13 use in seniors. COVID-19-related decreases in pediatric PCV13 use would need to be both substantial and prolonged to make heightened PCV13 use in non-immunocompromised seniors economically favorable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]