Background Elevated systolic blood pressure ( SBP) and high resting heart rate ( HR) are associated with cardiovascular end-points. Although the association between atrial fibrillation ( AF) and SBP is well established, the relation between AF and HR remains unclear. Methods In patients from the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND studies with high cardiovascular disease risk ( n = 27 064), new-onset AF was evaluated in relation to mean SBP, visit-to-visit variation in SBP ( SBP- CV; i.e. SD/mean × 100%), mean HR and visit-to-visit variation in HR ( HR- CV). Results Low mean HR ( P < 0.0001) and high SBP ( P = 0.0021) were associated with incident AF. High SBP- CV ( P = 0.031) and HR- CV ( P < 0.0001) were also associated with incident AF. After adjustment for confounders, SBP and SBP- CV were no longer significantly associated with AF. The detrimental effect of low HR was particularly evident in subjects who were not receiving treatment with beta-blockers ( P = 0.014 for interaction between beta-blocker use and mean HR). In addition to low HR, high HR- CV and high SBP had additive effects on incident AF. Conclusions Low mean HR (<60 beats min−1) is independently associated with incident AF, and low HR- CV and high SBP further increase the incidence of new-onset AF in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]