The evaluation model for horizontal well development has significant potential in recoverable reserves uncertainty studies. This paper firstly establishes an evaluation model on the degree of reserve recovery at different level of water cut, and then makes a chart of the dimensionless aspect seepage ratio against the degree of reserve recovery at different level of water cut. Secondly, introduces heterogeneity correction factor and saturation correction factor to improve the oil recovery model. Finally, the oil recovery of 6 reservoirs with horizontal well development in Dagang Oil Company indicates that the prediction of the evaluation model is agreement with the actual data, and the model can provide criteria for horizontal well development in a bottom water reservoir.