This study investigates the relationship between environmental regulation and total factor carbon productivity in China’s industrial sectors. Using panel data analysis from 2000 to 2016, we find that environmental regulations significantly enhance carbon productivity. We also examine the mediating effect of environmental regulation and analyze the dynamic effects using a threshold effect model. The results reveal a non-linear relationship, where stricter regulations may increase carbon emissions beyond a certain threshold. The study emphasizes the importance of energy allocation and technology development in shaping carbon productivity outcomes. Promoting innovation, developing a clean energy system, and implementing effective environmental regulations are crucial for improving total factor carbon productivity and achieving sustainable economic growth.