Kashmir musk deer Moschus cupreus(KMD) are the least studied species of musk deer. We compiled genetically validatedoccurrence records of KMD to construct species distribution models using MaximumEntropy. We show that the distribution of KMD is limited between central Nepal onthe east and north-east Afghanistan on the west and is primarily determined byprecipitation of driest quarter, annual mean temperature, water vapor, andprecipitation during the coldest quarter. Precipitation being the most influentialdeterminant of distribution suggests the importance of pre-monsoon moisture forgrowth of the dominant vegetation, Himalayan birch Betulautilis and Himalayan fir Abiesspectabilis, in KMD’s preferred forests. All fourRepresentative Concentration Pathway Scenarios result an expansion of suitablehabitat in Uttarakhand, India, west Nepal and their associated areas in China in2050s and 2070s but a dramatic loss of suitable habitat elsewhere (Kashmir regionand Pakistan-Afghanistan border). About 1/4th of thecurrent habitat will remain as climate refugia in future. Since the existing networkof protected areas will only include a tiny fraction (4%) of the climatic refugia ofKMD, the fate of the species will be determined by the interplay of more urgentshort-term forces of poaching and habitat degradation and long-term forces ofclimate change.