본 연구의 목적은 멘토링형 장학사업에 참여한 청소년의 심리적 안정성과 진로결정성 변화궤적의 잠재계층 유형별 특성과 전이 관계를 파악하는데 있다. 이를 위해 2018년부터 2022년까지 삼성꿈장학재단 멘토링 꿈장학 사업에 참여한 청소년들의 응답 자료를 활용하여 순차과정 성장혼합모형(SP-GMM)분석을 실시하였다. 첫째, 잠재성장모형(LGM)을 활용하여 전체적인 변화형태를 살펴본 결과, 심리적 안정성은 선형 변화 모형, 진로결정성은 이차함수 변화 모형이 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 성장혼합모형(GMM)을 활용하여 변화궤적 유형을 살펴본 결과, 심리적 안정성 집단은 ‘향상집단(2.1%)’, ‘감소집단(4.7%)’, ‘저수준유지집단(21.8%)’, ‘고수준유지집단(71.5%)’으로, 진로결정성 집단은 ‘향상>감소집단(4.0%)’, ‘고수준유지집단(63.0%)’, ‘감소>회복집단(9.4%)’, ‘저수준소폭향상(23.7%)’으로 각각 4개 집단이 최종 결정되었다. 마지막으로, 두 변인의 변화궤적 유형 간 전이 양상을 살펴보기 위해 순차과정 성장혼합모형(SP-GMM)을 실시한 결과, 심리적 안정성의 ‘향상집단(2.1%)’과 ‘감소집단(4.7%)’은 진로결정성의 ‘고수준유지집단(63.0%)’으로 전이될 확률이 높았으며, 심리적 안정성의 ‘저수준유지집단(21.8%)’은 진로결정성의 ‘저수준소폭향상집단(23.7%)’으로, 심리적 안정성 ‘고수준유지집단(71.5%)’은 진로결정성의 ‘고수준유지집단(63.0%)’으로 전이될 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 변화궤적 전이에 영향을 주는 요인(성별, 경제적 수준, 역경극복의지, 변화적응성, 성취목표지향성)을 살펴보았으며, 멘토링형 장학사업의 효과 및 청소년의 심리적 안정성 증진과 그들의 진로결정성 함양에 대한 실천적 함의를 제언하였다.
The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics and transfer relationship of each latent class type of change trajectories of psychological stability and career decision of adolescents who participated in the mentoring-type scholarship project. To this end, a Sequential Process Growth Mixture Model (SP-GMM) analysis was conducted using the response data from adolescents who participated in the Samsung Dream Scholarship Foundation’s Mentoring Dream Scholarship project from 2018 to 2022. First, the examining of the overall form of change using the Latent Growth Model(LGM) found that the linear change model for psychological stability and the quadratic function change model for career decision were suitable. Second, based on the examining the type of change trajectories using the Growth Mixture Model(GMM), the psychological stability group is divided into ‘rising(2.1%)’, ‘declining(4.7%)’, ‘low-level maintenance(21.8%)’, ‘high-level maintenance(71.5%)’, while the career decision group is divided into ‘rising>declining(4.0%)’, ‘high-level maintenance(63.0%)’, ‘declining>recovery (9.4%)’, and ‘low-level small rising(23.7%)’. Finally, a Sequential Process Growth Mixture Model (SP-GMM) conducted to examine transition patterns among the types of change trajectories of two variables found that the ‘rising(2.1%)’ and the ‘declining(4.7%)’ of psychological stability were likely to be transferred to the ‘high-level maintenance(63.0%)’ of career decision, while the ‘low-level maintenance(21.8%)’ of psychological stability was likely to be transferred to the ‘low-level small rising(23.7%) of career decision, and the ‘high-level maintenance(71.5%)’ of psychological stability was likely to be transferred to the ‘high-level maintenance(63.0%)’ of career decision. In addition, the factors affecting the transition of change trajectories (gender, economic level, willingness to overcome adversity, adaptability to change, and achievement goal orientation) were examined, and practical implications for the effectiveness of the mentoring scholarship project, the improvement of psychological stability of underprivileged youths in education, and their career decision were suggested.