随着国家的发展,国家与国家间的贸易交易变得越来越频繁。中国自2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来,中国经济快速发展,出口被认为是中国经济快速发展的重要原因。为了降低交易过程中带来的风险,发展产生了出口信用保险。出口信用保险主要作用在于促进出口贸易、提升出口产品竞争力、保障出口商的收汇安全和金融机构信贷安全。因此各国政府为了促进经济的发展,把出口信用保险作为一种国际通用且符合世贸组织(WTO)规则的、促进本国出口的金融工具。 中国官方出口信用保险机构章程中明确了机构不以盈利为目的属性,在国 际形势不断, 同时因为疫情对出口的不确定性,中国经济产业发展受到很大压力,所以研究如何有效地利用出口信用保险这项金融工具,对出口的稳定和经济的发展具有重大意义。 本文旨在深入研究中国出口信用保险对中国的出口和经济增长产生的影响,从而调整出口信用保险相关政策,为中国的出口和经济更好的发展提供方向和思路。 出本文基于有关出口信用保险经济效益的经济理论和模型,根据2002~2022年的中国出口额、出口信用保险、GDP、资金、人口等数据,采用中国经济时间序列对建立的研究模型进行向量误差修正分析。一是分析中国出口信用保险对出口的影响和具体影响因素。二是分析出口信用保险对中国经济增长的影响。 由于时间序列数据大部分都是不稳定的,因此先进行单位根检验,差分达到稳定状态后,进行线性回归分析。在回归分析中国出口信用保险对出口的影响时,将数据取对数后进行估算。结果表明,出口信用保险和出口价格指数对中国出口有显著影响,虽然上一年度国民收入也有显著影响,但是,前一年国民收入增加,出口就会减少,这可能是因为中国的国民收入增加,购买产品增多进而导致出口减少。 其中发现,出口信用保险对中国出口的影响是最大的。 在回归分析出口信用保险对经济增长模型的结果来看,劳动力变量在时差1和3时有显著影响,资本储备在二阶和三阶时有显著影响,出口信用保险也有显著影响。 由于假设模型含有多个变量,因此再进行协整关系检验,看是否存在长期均衡关系,根据检验结果发现,出口函数和经济增长函数都存在相关变量和三个协整关系。因此这两个变量都存在长期均衡关系的协整关系,根据协整关系推测出长期均衡估计结果。都表明中国的出口信用保险对出口和经济增长都是长期的正影响。 如果经济模型的变量之间存在协整关系,那么也会存在短期的误差修正模型。误差修正模型既是检验变量之间协整关系的一种方法,也是阐明变量之间动态调整过程的重要手段。 根据误差修正模型推测结果显示,协整项对所有变量都是负值,通过短期调整过程呈现出稳定的状态。出口信用保险对出口没有产生显著的影响,但出口信用保险对时差1是正效应对时差2是负效应,说明具有短期调整的过程。出口单价对出口、出口信用保险、出口单价本身具有显著的短期调整过程,出口信用保险对国民收入、时差1、2都有显著的短期调整过程。 通过VECM模型中的冲击响应函数和方差分解分析对其进行分析,出口信用保险、GDP、出口单价利率变数都是预测误差的分散因自身变量的冲击而解释最多的部分。另外,根据出口函数的方差分解,从第2期到第3期通过出口自身的冲击,在57%左右,然后持续减少到40%左右维持稳定。出口信用保险在初期中占出口变动的5%左右,持续增加,增加到说明10%左右,呈现出逐渐收敛的趋势。GDP在29%左右反复涨落,呈现出停滞不前的样子。出口单价从初期的占出口变动7%左右增加到17%左右后收敛。 根据经济增长模型相关变量的误差修正模型推测结果如下。在经济增长和资本储备形成过程中,误差修正项呈负值,从长期来看,可以看作是稳定的收敛过程。出口信用保险在第一期时差产生正影响,第二期时差产生负影响。中国资本储备形成过程的误差修正调整过程也与经济增长的情况相似,国民收入形成过程是正的影响,出口信用保险在第一期产生正影响,第二期产生负影响,具有调整过程。出口信用保险增长1%的冲击表现为第1期对中国经济增长无任何影响,即为零,后第4期影响增加,后逐渐减少,但呈正值,逐渐减少并趋于收敛。 从经济增长相关变量的1%变化冲击来看,经济增长的反应是,对于体现经济增长的国民收入变动的1%变化,经济增长持续呈现正值,持续减少。对于出口信用保险的1%变化冲击,经济增长在第一期受到0的影响,但此后到第六期为止其影响力呈增加趋势。另外,资本储备1%的变化冲击对国民收入变动呈现出负和正值,不规则地影响经济增长。 从经济增长相关模型的方差分解结果来看,国民收入本身持续占据中国国民收入形成的90%以上,资本储备对国民收入形成的贡献从4.5%左右缓慢减少到3.2%左右,占国民收入形成部分。出口信用保险在初期具有1的价格,之后随着时间的流逝,虽然微不足道,但持续增加到了6.5%。。 对出口信用保险变动的方差分解结果中,对出口信用保险的变动,经济增长的贡献在初期急剧增加,这也是在达到80%左右的状态下稳定下来的,出口信用保险本身的贡献持续减少,资本储备形成的贡献虽然微乎其微,但持续增加。 为应对当前中国的形势,应稳步增长出口信贷保险,以达到促进出口和经济增长的效果。与此同时,应该促进内需,适当管理库存,恢复生产能力,谋求理想的经济均衡状态。
With the development of countries, trade transactions between countries become more and more frequent. Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China's economy has developed rapidly, and exports are considered to be an important reason for China's rapid economic development. In order to reduce the risks brought by the transaction process, export credit insurance has been developed. The main function of export credit insurance is to promote export trade, enhance the competitiveness of export products, and ensure the security of exporters' foreign exchange collection and credit security of financial institutions. Therefore, in order to promote economic development, the governments of all countries regard export credit insurance as an international general financial instrument which conforms to the rules of World Trade Organization (WTO) and promotes their own exports.The charter of China's official export credit insurance agency clearly states that the agency is not profit-oriented. With the continuous international situation and the uncertainty of export caused by the epidemic, China's economic and industrial development is under great pressure. Therefore, studying how to effectively use export credit insurance as a financial instrument is of great significance to the stability of export and economic development.This paper aims to deeply study the impact of China's export credit insurance on China's export and economic growth, so as to adjust the relevant policies of export credit insurance and provide direction and ideas for the better development of China's export and economy.Based on the economic theory and model about the economic benefits of export credit insurance, this paper analyzes the vector error correction of the research model based on the data of China's export value, export credit insurance, GDP, capital and population from 2002 to 2022 by using China's economic time series. The first is to analyze the impact of China's export credit insurance on exports and specific influencing factors. The second is to analyze the impact of export credit insurance on China's economic growth.Since most of the time series data are unstable, unit root test is carried out first, and linear regression analysis is performed after the difference reaches a stable state. In the regression analysis of the impact of China's export credit insurance on exports, the logarithm of the data is taken to estimate. The results show that export credit insurance and export price index have a significant impact on China's exports. Although the national income of the previous year also has a significant impact, the export of the previous year will decrease when the national income increases, which may be because China's national income increases and the purchase of more products leads to the decrease of exports. It is found that export credit insurance has the greatest impact on China's exports.According to the results of regression analysis of export credit insurance on economic growth model, labor variables have a significant impact at the time difference of 1 and 3, capital reserves have a significant impact at the second and third orders, and export credit insurance also has a significant impact.Since the model is assumed to contain multiple variables, the co-integration relationship test is conducted to see whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship. According to the test results, it is found that there are correlation variables and three cointegration relationships in both export function and economic growth function. Therefore, there is a cointegration relationship of the long-term equilibrium relationship between these two variables, and the long-term equilibrium estimation results can be inferred based on the cointegration relationship. All these show that China's export credit insurance has a long-term positive impact on export and economic growth.If there is a cointegration relationship between the variables of the economic model, there will also be a short-term error correction model. Error correction model is not only a method to test the cointegration relationship between variables, but also an important means to illustrate the dynamic adjustment process between variables.According to the error correction model, the cointegration term is negative for all variables and presents a stable state through short-term adjustment. Export credit insurance has no significant impact on export, but export credit insurance has a positive effect on time difference 1 and a negative effect on time difference 2, indicating that there is a short-term adjustment process. Export unit price has a significant short-term adjustment process for exports, export credit insurance and export unit price itself, while export credit insurance has a significant short-term adjustment process for national income, time difference 1 and 2.Based on the shock response function and variance decomposition analysis in the VECM model, export credit insurance, GDP, and export unit price interest rate variables are the most explained parts of the dispersion of forecasting errors due to the impact of their own variables. In addition, according to the variance decomposition of the export function, from the second to the third period, through the impact of exports themselves, it was about 57%, and then continued to decrease to about 40% to maintain stability. Export credit insurance initially accounted for about 5% of the export change, and continued to increase to about 10%, showing a gradual trend of convergence. GDP has fluctuated repeatedly at around 29 percent, showing stagnation. The export unit price increased from about 7% of the initial export change to about 17% and then converged.According to the error correction model of the relevant variables of the economic growth model, the inferred results are as follows. In the process of economic growth and capital reserve formation, the error correction term is negative, which can be regarded as a stable convergence process in the long run. The first phase of export credit insurance has a positive impact, and the second phase has a negative impact. The error correction and adjustment process of China's capital reserve formation process is also similar to the situation of economic growth. The national income formation process has a positive impact, and export credit insurance has a positive impact in the first phase and a negative impact in the second phase, with an adjustment process. The impact of 1% increase of export credit insurance shows that in the first period, there is no impact on China's economic growth, that is, zero; in the second period, the impact increases, and then gradually decreases, but it is positive, gradually decreases and tends to converge.From the point of view of the 1% change shock of the variables related to economic growth, the response of economic growth is that for the 1% change of national income, which reflects economic growth, economic growth continues to be positive and continues to decrease. For the 1% change of export credit insurance, economic growth is affected by 0 percent in the first period, but its influence increases from then to the sixth period. In addition, the impact of 1% change of capital reserves has negative and positive effects on national income changes, which irregularly affects economic growth.According to the variance decomposition results of economic growth-related models, national income itself continues to occupy more than 90% of China's national income formation, and the contribution of capital reserves to national income formation slowly decreases from about 4.5% to about 3.2%, accounting for the formation of national income. Export credit insurance was initially priced at 1. 1 percent, but continued to increase to 6.5 percent over time.In the variance decomposition results of the changes of export credit insurance, the contribution of economic growth to the changes of export credit insurance increased sharply at the initial stage, which also stabilized at about 80%, while the contribution of export credit insurance itself continued to decrease, and the contribution of capital reserve formation continued to increase although it was very small.In order to cope with the current situation in China, export credit insurance should be steadily increased to achieve the effect of promoting export and economic growth. At the same time, we should promote domestic demand, properly manage inventory, restore productive capacity, and seek an ideal economic equilibrium.