The trip time of a high-voltage circuit breaker is crucial for interrupting electrical currents, and analyzing its variation patterns is essential for performance monitoring and fault prediction. Circuit breaker warning indicators, often presented as confidence probabilities, can lead to unnecessary maintenance due to trip time variability. Additionally, design tolerances and testing methods may result in differences between actual trip times and specified indicators. To address these issues, a dynamic model for high-voltage circuit breakers is established, considering design tolerances and friction variations. Chaos system theory is used to simulate trip time distribution, and experiments examine factors impacting trip times. In addition, a warning strategy is proposed based on the experimental results.