Based on the movement characteristics of UAV network nodes and the mobile model of aviation self-organized network nodes, this paper improves the model deceleration process and the transition relationship between different operating states. On the basis of the improved mobile model, a node link connection prediction method based on hidden Markov model is proposed. The topology model of satellite and UAV hybrid network is built by using the updated discrete graph, and the connection probability is introduced. Through simulation, TMDR can achieve the minimum transmission delay when meeting the constraint task requirements, which verifies the feasibility of data transmission based on the updated discrete graph.