为准确评估光伏接入配电网以后对其负荷特性的影响程度,分析了光伏出力的不确定性和时序性特点,建立了基于净空模型的光伏出力时序模型.根据光伏出力以及负荷的随机性特点,提出置信日负荷率、置信日峰谷差以及置信日削峰度3 种概率性负荷特性指标,基于概率性指标并结合蒙特卡洛模拟法形成考虑光伏不确定性的配电网负荷特性概率评估方法,运用其分析不同渗透率和天气情况下光伏接入对工业生产、酒店商业、农业加工、居民生活类负荷的影响程度.以广东地区的光伏出力历史数据为例进行仿真分析,结果表明:提出的概率性负荷特性指标能够准确的反映光伏接入对负荷特性的影响情况,为配电网规划与运行提供依据.
In order to accurately evaluate effect degree of photovoltaic (PV)accessing into the power distribution network on load characteristic,this paper analyzes uncertainty and time-sequence of PV output and establishes a time-sequence model for PV output based on clearance model. According to randomness of PV output and load,it proposes three kinds of probabilis-tic load characteristic indicators including confidence daily load rate,confidence daily difference between peak and valley and confidence daily peak load. On the basis of probabilistic indicators and combining Monte Carlo simulation method,it forms an evaluation method for load characteristic probability of the power distribution network considering PV uncertainty, then it uses this method to analyze effect degree of PV accessing into the network on load of industrial manufacture,hotel business,agricultural process and resident life under different permeability and weather situations. According to historical data of PV output of Guangdong region,it makes simulation analysis,and corresponding results indicate the proposed proba-bilistic load characteristic indicators can accurately reflect effect of PV accessing on load characteristic and provide basis for power grid planning and operation.