The suitability of the linearquadratic (LQ) and universal survival curve (USC) models to accurately forecast the 3-year local control rate of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer after carbon-ion radiation therapy is investigated in this study. The results suggest that the USC model is more appropriate than the LQ model in predicting the single-fraction clinical outcome. However, for the schedules with 4, 9, and 18 fractions, the LQ and USC models predicted comparable local control rates. A USC-based spread-out Bragg peak was then developed, providing a better clinical dose estimate for optimum local control.