Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study.
- Resource Type
- Article
- Authors
- Zeng, Zhiqi; Wu, Tong; Lin, Zhijie; Luo, Lei; Lin, Zhengshi; Guan, Wenda; Liang, Jingyi; Yu, Minfei; Guan, Peikun; He, Wei; Liu, Zige; Lu, Guibin; Xie, Peifang; Chen, Canxiong; Lau, Eric H. Y.; Yang, Zifeng; Hon, Chitin; He, Jianxing
- Source
- Scientific Reports. 12/6/2022, Vol. 12 Issue 1, p1-14. 14p.
- Subject
- *SARS-CoV-2
*SOCIAL distancing
*SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant
- Language
- ISSN
- 2045-2322
China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (Rt) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]