21st century permafrost distribution under the scenario of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in Mongolia.
- Resource Type
- Article
- Authors
- Adiya, Saruulzaya; Erdenebat, Enkhbat
- Source
- Proceedings of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences / Šinžlèh Uhaany Akademijn Mèdèè. 2021, Vol. 61 Issue 4, p9-14. 6p.
- Subject
- *PERMAFROST
*CLIMATE change
*SOIL temperature
*SOIL physics
- Language
- ISSN
- 2310-4716
Permafrost in Mongolia is at the southern edge of the Siberian permafrost, which is most vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used ERA5-Land data to determine the distribution of permafrost in Mongolia, and used MIROC5 data for future projection of the soil temperature. The future change of soil temperature obtained during 2020-2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios was RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively. This is a first attempt to identify the distribution of permafrost using ERA5-Land data in Mongolia. We examined the projection of permafrost distribution using RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in Mongolia. The rapid increase of near-surface temperature was obtained in RCP8.5 scenario during 2020-2100. Soil temperature also has a high increasing trend similar to the near-surface temperature in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Future projection suggests that permafrost will completely thaw in Mongolia when area-averaged soil temperature in Mongolia exceeds 1.8°C in comparison with the current climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]