There is evidence that nigrostriatal pathology may at least partly underlie mild Parkinsonian signs. We evaluated whether an increase in the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part III (UPDRS-III) could be predicted by the presence of risk and prodromal markers for neurodegenerative diseases in elderly individuals without those diseases. Therefore, we analyzed the UPDRS-III score and various risk and prodromal markers known to antecede neurodegenerative diseases in a population-based cohort comprising 807 individuals free of neurodegenerative diseases at baseline. After 5 years, eight persons (1.0 %) were diagnosed with Parkinson's Disease (PD). Of those, seven (87.5 %) had motor worsening ≥3 points on the UPDRS-III from baseline to follow-up, one had two points increase. Of the 788 people without PD, 568 (72.1 %) showed no increase in the UPDRS-III scale, 220 (27.9 %) had ≥1 point increase and out of these 104 (13.2 %) had an increase of ≥3 points in the UPDRS-III score after 5 years. We identified an age >60 years (relative risk, RR = 1.7; confidence interval, CI 1.3-2.1) and the occurrence of ≥2 risk factors (RR = 1.5; CI 1.2-1.9) as possible predictors of motor progression. After 5 years, individuals with an increase in the UPDRS-III score had more often a one-sided reduced arm swing ( p < 0.001) and identified less odors in the Sniffin' sticks test ( p < 0.041) than persons with stable motor performance. Our data support the assumption that progression of Parkinsonian signs assessed by the UPDRS-III parallels the development of prodromal markers for neurodegenerative diseases in the elderly population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]