단순 수명정보를 이용한 IPM의 베이지안 신뢰도 평가 연구
A Study on Bayesian Reliability Evaluation of IPM using Simple Information
- Resource Type
- Article
- Authors
- 조동철 / Dong Cheol Jo; 구정서 / Jeong Seo Koo
- Source
- 한국안전학회지(구 산업안전학회지) / Journal of the Korean of Safety. Apr 30, 2021 36(2):32
- Subject
- IPM
bayesian reliability
gibbs sampling
RMSE
Kaplan-Meier
- Language
- Korean
- ISSN
- 1738-3803
This paper suggests an approach to evaluate the reliability of an intelligent power module with information deficiency of prior distribution and the characteristics of censored data through Bayesian statistics. This approach used a prior distribution of Bayesian statistics using the lifetime information provided by the manufacturer and compared and evaluated diffuse prior (vague prior) distributions. To overcome the computational complexity of Bayesian posterior distribution, it was computed with Gibbs sampling in the Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result, the standard deviation of the prior distribution developed using simple information was smaller than that of the posterior distribution calculated with the diffuse prior. In addition, it showed excellent error characteristics on RMSE compared with the Kaplan-Meier method.