광주지역의 수출행태에 관한 실증분석
An Empirical Analysis of Export Behavior of Gwangju
- Resource Type
- Article
Text
- Authors
- 모수원; 심재희; Mo, Soo Won; Shim, Jae-Hee
- Source
- 상업교육연구, 03/30/2009, Vol. 23, Issue 1, p. 435-450
- Subject
- 광주
환율
충격반응
Gwangju
Exchange Rate
Impulse-response
- Language
- 한국어(KOR)
- ISSN
- 1229-8867
The main purpose of this paper is to determine the reduced form impact of exchange rate and business activity on the major four export products of Gwangju. They are semi-conductors, cars, rotary electric products and refrigerators. This is accomplished by modelling export demand as exchange rate and world industrial production and estimating the income and price elasticities of demand for the exports of Gwangju. All series span the period January 2000 to April 2008. We first examine the univariate time-series properties of the series by testing whether the series are stationary or not. The number of lags is determined on the performance of the Lagrange multiplier test for serial correlation. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables at the 5 percent significance level. Based on this result, we test whether there is an equilibrium relationship between them using Engle-Granger cointegration test. The results show that the null hypothesis of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration cannot be rejected at the 5 percent level. The empirical results of this paper reveal that the income variable performs a key role in the long-run and the exports of semi-conductors and refrigerators are more likely to be volatile to the change of the uncontrollable variables. This study hitherto applies impulse response functions to the model to get an information regarding the responses of exports to the shocks in the exchange rate and income. The results show that exports respond positively to the shock in the income and decay very slowly, while exports do positively to the shock in the exchange rate for a very short period. This facts suggest that it is not the exchange rate but the income variable that influences the exports of Gwangju greatly.