Effects of behaviour change on HFMD transmission
- Resource Type
- article
- Authors
- Tongrui Zhang; Zhijie Zhang; Zhiyuan Yu; Qimin Huang; Daozhou Gao
- Source
- Journal of Biological Dynamics, Vol 17, Iss 1 (2023)
- Subject
- HFMD
behaviour change
basic reproduction number
infection size
global stability
37N25
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Biology (General)
QH301-705.5
- Language
- English
- ISSN
- 17513758
1751-3766
1751-3758
ABSTRACTWe propose a hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) transmission model for children with behaviour change and imperfect quarantine. The symptomatic and quarantined states obey constant behaviour change while others follow variable behaviour change depending on the numbers of new and recent infections. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the model is defined and shown to be a threshold for disease persistence and eradication. Namely, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text] whereas the disease persists and there is a unique endemic equilibrium otherwise. By fitting the model to weekly HFMD data of Shanghai in 2019, the reproduction number is estimated at 2.41. Sensitivity analysis for [Formula: see text] shows that avoiding contagious contacts and implementing strict quarantine are essential to lower HFMD persistence. Numerical simulations suggest that strong behaviour change not only reduces the peak size and endemic level dramatically but also impairs the role of asymptomatic transmission.