为分析城市减污降碳绿色发展水平,利用层次分析法(AHP)构建了城市减污降碳绿色发展水平综合评价体系,以昆明市为研究区域,结合熵权法定量评价昆明市城市减污降碳绿色发展水平,并利用三元耦合协调度模型对其耦合协调效应演进过程进行分析.研究结果显示,2005-2020 年昆明市减污降碳绿色发展协调发展度(即综合评价指数)呈现持续上升趋势,年均增长率为 12.3%,评估结果达到良的水平,单位GDP建设用地面积、单位GDP能源消耗、单位GDP二氧化碳排放量、单位工业增加值化学需氧量排放量是最主要影响因素;减污降碳绿色发展的耦合协调度指数呈现持续上升趋势,3 个子系统之间的耦合协调度由失调衰退阶段逐渐向过渡调和阶段、协调发展阶段转变,环境治理、低碳建设与耦合协调效应是主要影响因素.未来仍需以绿色低碳发展模式为统领,统筹减污和降碳工作,以实现减污降碳绿色发展耦合协调效应尽快达到并稳定在优质协调发展程度.
In order to analyze the level of urban pollution reduction,carbon reduction and green development,a comprehensive evaluation system of urban pollution reduction,carbon reduction and green development level was constructed by using the hierarchical analysis method(AHP).Kunming was taken as the research area,combined with the entropy weighting method to quantitatively evaluate the level of pollution reduction,carbon reduction and green development of Kunming,and analyzed the evolution process of its coupling coordination effect by using the ternary coupling coordination degree model.The results showed that:the degree of coordinated development(i.e.,the comprehensive evaluation index)of pollution reduction,carbon reduction and green development in Kunming shows a continuous upward trend from 2005 to 2020,with an average annual growth rate of 12.3%,and the evaluation result reaches the level of benign,and the area of land used for construction per unit of GDP,the energy consumption per unit of GDP,the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP,and the chemical oxygen demand emission per unit of industrial added value are the most important factors;The degree of coupling and coordination among of pollution reduction,carbon reduction and green development shows a continuous upward trend,the coupling and coordination between the three subsystems gradually change from the stage of imbalance and decline to the stage of over-harmonization and coordinated development,the main influencing factors are the environmental governance and low-carbon construction.In order to achieve the stability of coupling and coordination effect at the level of high-quality and coordinated development,the next step should be to promote the transformation of economic and social development mode with top-level design,to achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality as a whole to reduce carbon and pollution.