随着中国玉米供需缺口逐渐加大和国际外部环境不确定性的增加,如何提升中国在国际玉米市场上的议价能力具有重要现实意义.为测度中国在玉米国际贸易市场上的议价能力,本文基于双边随机前沿模型,从理论和实证两个方面对中国在国际玉米市场上的议价能力进行定性与定量分析.研究发现:①中国玉米进口数量上涨明显,对外依存度提高,且进口来源集中度较高;②中国在玉米国际市场上的议价能力长期低于玉米主要出口国,玉米进口价格高于理论进口价格;③长期以来,中国在与美国的玉米贸易中处于弱势地位,尤其是当中国进口来源过度集中于美国时,这种议价差距将进一步被放大.推动中国进口来源多元化,加快农业"走出去"步伐,建立可持续的粮食供应体系对提升中国在国际玉米市场的谈判能力和抵御风险能力大有裨益.
With the increasing gap between China's corn supply and demand,and the increasing uncertainty of the international external environment,how to improve China's bargaining power in the international corn market has important practical significance.In order to measure China's bargaining power in the international corn market,this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of China's bargaining power in the inter-national corn market from both theoretical and empirical aspects based on the bilateral stochastic frontier model.The results show that:①China's corn imports have risen significantly,increasing the degree of ex-ternal dependence,and import sources are highly concentrated.②China's bargaining power in the internation-al corn market is lower than that of major corn exporting countries for a long time,and the import price of corn is higher than the theoretical import price.③For a long time,China has been in a weak position in corn trade with the United States,especially when China's import sources are excessively concentrated in the U-nited States,this bargaining gap will be further amplified.Promoting the diversification of China's import sources,accelerating the pace of agricultural going out,and establishing a sustainable food supply system are of great benefit to improving China's negotiating ability and ability to resist risks in the international corn market.