作为一个复杂的网络组织,海运供应链为全球产业链提供运输服务,在全球化大背景下,海运供应链面临众多风险与挑战,影响供应链的安全平稳运行.因此,研究其风险至关重要.针对海运供应链风险评估体系中影响因素的不确定性和专家知识推断中存在的主观性,文章提出了基于改进DS证据理论和贝叶斯网络的海运供应链风险评估模型.结果表明,海运供应链处于较高风险等级状态,其中"信息系统风险"和"外部环境风险"概率较高,需要重点关注.该模型可以从系统的角度评估海运供应链风险,切实增强风险评估工作的科学性、准确性;评估结果可为供应链上的参与者进行风险管理提供有效参考.
As a complex network organization,the maritime supply chain provides transport services for the global industrial chain,and in the context of globalization,the maritime supply chain faces numer-ous risks and challenges that affect the safe and smooth operation of the supply chain.Therefore,it is cru-cial to study its risks.In response to the uncertainty of influencing factors and subjectivity in expert knowl-edge inference in the risk assessment system of maritime supply chain,the article proposes a maritime supply chain risk assessment model based on improved DS evidence theory and Bayesian network.The re-sults indicate that the maritime supply chain is in a high risk level state,with a high probability of"infor-mation system risk"and"external environmental risk",which require special attention.This model can evaluate the risks of the maritime supply chain from a systematic perspective,effectively improving the scientificity and accuracy of risk assessment;The evaluation results can provide effective reference for risk management for participants in the supply chain.