[目的]探究黄土丘陵区天然侧柏种群结构特征及生存状况,为该区森林草地高质量可持续发展提供科学依据.[方法]基于遥感影像选择10 000 m2典型样地为研究区,利用每木检尺法调查采集数据;采用时间代替空间、匀滑技术等方法在静态生命表的基础上利用动态变化指数量化分析数量特征,结合时间尺度上的谱分析及时间序列模拟预测,对侧柏种群进行综合生存分析.[结果]①侧柏种群的高度、冠幅和径级结构均表明幼树丰富.②侧柏种群存活曲线近Deevey-Ⅱ型,种群对外界干扰有敏感度.③种群动态表现为前期生存能力强,中期生长稳定,后期生命衰退的特点.时间序列模拟和预测分析说明侧柏种群个体呈不同程度的增加趋势且具较强生长恢复能力.[结论]黄土丘陵区天然侧柏种群结构稳定且呈增长趋势,存活曲线接近Deevey-Ⅱ型.
[Objective]Population structure characteristics and survival status of natural Platycladus orientalis in the loess hilly region were determined in order to provide a scientific basis for high-quality and sustainable development of forest grassland in this area.[Methods]Characteristics were quantitatively analyzed by using a dynamic change index based on a static life table combined with spectral analysis on the time scale and time series simulation prediction to carry out a comprehensive survival analysis of this cypress species.[Results]① The height,crown width,and diameter structure of the P.orientalis population indicated that young trees were abundant.② The survival curve of the P.orientalis population was close to Deevey-Ⅱ type,and the population was sensitive to external interference.③ Population dynamics were characterized by strong viability in the early stage,stable growth in the middle stage,and decline in viability in the later stage.Time series simulation and prediction analysis showed that the population of P.orientalis showed different degrees of increasing trend and strong growth recovery ability.[Conclusion]The natural population structure of P.orientalis in the loess hilly region was stable and growing,and the survival curve was close to that of Deevey-Ⅱ type.