[目的]厘清城市化建设的持续推进下山东省目前的生态环境质量时空状况及其演化的主要驱动因子,对认清山东省生态环境现状及后期制定切实可靠的保护战略和制度至关重要.[方法]基于 1991-2021 年的综合指标——遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index,RSEI)并辅以 Sen趋势法、变异系数法、Hurst 指数法和地理探测器对山东省生态环境质量变化特征及其变化的驱动因子进行了探究.[结果](1)1991-2000 年山东省生态环境质量总体为下降趋势,变化较为稳定;2001-2010 年 RSEI 总体呈增加趋势,以稳定变化趋势为主;2011-2021 年RSEI变化大部分区域呈稳定状态,林地和耕地区域 RSEI 为增加趋势,其他土地利用类型均为减小趋势.(2)RSEI未来一段时期内以增加趋势为主,且不同土地利用类型区域未来一段时间内变化趋势与过去 31a相反.(3)1990-2000 年、2001-2010 年土地利用变化对山东省RSEI空间分布变化的影响最大,2011-2021 年RSEI空间分布变化受到湿度变化和土地利用变化的影响较大,且土地利用与其他因子间的交互作用对 RSEI 的影响均较大.[结论]山东省不同时段、不同生态环境质量对环境因子的敏感性存在显著差异,这是因为不同区域人类活动强度、方式和不同区域生态环境脆弱性存在差异.生态环境质量的可视化表达可以较好地反映生态环境质量时空演化特征,为维护人-生态环境平衡的决策制定提供重要的参考信息.
[Objective]The aim of this study is to clarify the temporal and spatial status of ecological environment quality and the main driving factors of its evolution under the continuous promotion of urbanization in Shandong Province,which is of great importance for recognizing the status quo of ecological environment in Shandong Province and formulating reliable protection strategies and systems in the later stage.[Methods]Based on remote sensing ecological index:a comprehensive index from 1991 to 2021,with the help of Sen trend method,coefficient of variation method,Hurst index method and geographical detector,the characteristics and driving factors of ecological environment quality change in Shandong Province were explored.[Results](1)From 1991 to 2000,the ecological environment quality in Shandong Province showed the decreasing trend and the change was relatively stable.From 2001 to 2010,RSEI showed the increasing trend,mainly stable change trend.From 2011 to 2021,RSEI changes in most areas showed the stable state,and RSEI in woodland and cultivat-ed land areas showed the increasing trend,while other land use types showed the decreasing trend.(2)RSEI will mainly increase in the future period,and the change trend of different land use types in the future period is opposite to that in the past 31 years.(3)Land use change had the greatest impact on the spatial distribu-tion of RSEI in Shandong Province during 1990-2000 and 2001-2010,and the spatial distribution of RSEI during 2011-2021 was greatly affected by humidity change and land use change,and the interaction between land use and other factors had a greater impact on RSEI.[Conclusion]There are significant differences in the sensitivity of ecological environment quality to environmental factors at different periods in Shandong Province,which is caused by the differences in the intensity and mode of human activities in different regions and the vulnerability of ecological environment in different regions.The visual expression of ecological environment quality can reflect the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of ecological environment quality,and provide important reference information for the decision making of maintaining human-ecological environment balance.