为使黄河流域农业灌溉水资源得到合理利用,采用3阶段DEA模型和Malmquist指数方法,分析2007-2020年黄河流域各省区在剔除外部环境影响因素下的实际农业灌溉用水效率.结果表明:1)黄河流域农业灌溉用水效率低下主要受制于经济水平和水资源禀赋,尽管政府的重视对其效率具有一定的促进作用,但效果不显著.2)在消除外部影响因素后,2007-2020年黄河流域灌溉用水的纯技术效率平均值被低估(0.931),综合技术效率平均值(0.733)和规模效率平均值(0.792)被高估.在省域尺度上,除河南省农业灌溉用水效率位于有效前沿面外,其余省区的农业灌溉用水投入均未得到有效利用.3)通过Malmquist指数分析发现,2007-2020年黄河流域农业灌溉用水效率整体呈波动上升趋势,平均增长率为10.3%.其中,技术进步变化>1,规模效率变化与Mamquist指数变化趋势相似.综上,黄河流域应在灌溉技术水平较高的基础上高度重视农业灌溉用水中规模效率的潜力,以进一步提升灌溉用水效率.
[Background]Currently,the Yellow River Basin contributes one-third of China's total grain production,but its agricultural water management is inefficient,with irrigation water accounting for over 90%of total usage.Efficient utilization of agricultural irrigation water is crucial for sustainable agricultural development and environmental conservation.Implementing efficient irrigation system improves crop yield and quality,enhances drought resistance and adaptability,reduces costs,and mitigates soil salinization.Therefore,efficient agricultural irrigation water usage is necessary to promote sustainable agricultural development and ecological protection.[Methods]This article employed the three-stage DEA model and Malmquist index to conduct static and dynamic analysis of agricultural irrigation water use efficiency in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2020.The three-stage DEA model can eliminate the impact of non-operational factors(including external environment and random errors)on agricultural irrigation water use efficiency,thereby more accurately reflecting the internal management level of decision units.The Malmquist index can analyze the trend changes in agricultural irrigation water use efficiency,which helps to better understand the development trend of agricultural irrigation water use efficiency.[Results]The First Stage of the DEA model revealed that,from 2007 to 2020,the annual average comprehensive efficiency,pure technical efficiency,and scale efficiency of agricultural irrigation water use in the Yellow River Basin were 0.786,0.913,and 0.864,respectively.The regression outcomes from the Second Stage of SFA revealed that the regression coefficients of per capita gross domestic product(GDP)and per capita water resources with respect to the input slack variables associated with effective irrigated area pass the 1%significance test.In contrast,input slack variables associated with agricultural water use and personnel employment did not pass the significance test.Furthermore,fiscal expenditures on agricultural and forestry water affairs did not exhibit significance in relation to any of the input slack variables.In the Third Stage,the results of the DEA model indicate that,after controlling for external factors and random errors,the annual average comprehensive efficiency for this period decreased by 5.2%,while pure technical efficiency increased by 1.8%,and scale efficiency declined by 7.2%.The annual average comprehensive efficiency,pure technical efficiency,and scale efficiency in Henan province all remained above 1,reaching their maximum values.The Malmquist index revealed that,from 2007 to 2020,the overall trend in irrigation water use efficiency in the Yellow River Basin demonstrated a fluctuating upward trajectory with an average growth rate of 10.3%.Specifically,the change in technical progress exceeded 1,and the variation in scale efficiency corresponded to the changes observed in the Malmquist index.[Conclusions]Based on the above conclusions,the agricultural irrigation technology in the Yellow River Basin is at an advanced level.However,the pure technical efficiency of agricultural irrigation water use is underestimated,and the scale efficiency is overestimated,leading to the inappropriate scale of agricultural irrigation.Therefore,while ensuring the adoption of advanced irrigation technologies,it is imperative to prioritize the exploration of the scale efficiency potential in agricultural irrigation water use.This approach will further enhance the efficiency of irrigation water use,promoting the sustainable development of water and soil resources in the region.