结合某土石坝垂直位移监测资料,针对非平稳时间序列分析时可能产生的“伪回归”问题,采用主成分分析方法和协整理论建立土石坝安全监控模型,并对监测点的变形性态进行分析.结果表明,所建立的模型系数显著,意义明确,克服了自变量间的多重共线性以及到平稳时间序列分析时的“伪回归”问题,在监测时段内,监测点垂直位移时效基本稳定.
Aiming at the problem of spurious regression when analyzing the non stationary time series,the safety monitoring model of earth-rockfill dam is established based on principal component analysis and cointegration theory to analyze the deformation behavior of monitoring stations combined with the vertical displacements monitoring data of an earth-rockfill dam.The result shows that the model has significant coefficient and definite meaning,and meanwhile,it can overcome the multicollinearity of independent variables and the problem of spurious regression in analyzing the non stationary time series.The vertical displacements of monitoring stations are stable during monitoring period.