大量文献已经证明移民总体上对进出 口贸易有着显著的促进作用,并且发现贸易成本渠道和偏好渠道都很重要,但贸易成本渠道有更重要的效率提升意义.然而,近期依然不乏相关研究继续拓宽这一领域的研究边界.总体而言,较新的前沿研究一方面是在因果识别上做得更为干净,使用 自然实验结合"偏离—份额"方法来构建工具变量,以获得更加一致无偏的估计结果.另一方面则是寻找研究对象的其他角度,或与其他相关问题结合,如区分贸易的二元边际,从货物贸易拓展到服务贸易,研究移民对贸易协定的制定或出口产品质量的影响等.另外,也有学者对移民与进口之间不确定的关系展开了深入研究,对比与前人结论的不同并尝试给出合理的解释.
Recent decades have seen a robust growth of both the number of international immigrants and the volume of international trade transactions,an important feature of"globalization".Between the two,are they complementary or substitutive?This article systematically reviews research on the role of immigration in international trade,explains the mechanism of action by employing relevant theories,and summarizes a large amount of evidence from empirical articles.The literature generally proves that immigration has a significant promoting effect on import and export trade,with mechanisms including trade cost channels and immigration preference channels;in some sub-sample analysis,there may also be a substitution relationship between immigration and imports.On this basis,this article summarizes the recent advancement directions of cutting-edge research and proposes several other possible directions for further studies.