Selecting and correcting RCM models ensemble: a case study for the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato
- Resource Type
- Authors
- Giuliana Barbato; Veronica Villani; Elvira Romano; Paola Mercogliano
- Source
- Natural Hazards. 107:1541-1557
- Subject
- Atmospheric Science
Index (economics)
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Specific test
Computer science
0211 other engineering and technologies
Climate change
High-resolution climate projection
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
Thermal discomfort
Natural hazard
Statistics
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
Humidex
Selection (genetic algorithm)
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Water Science and Technology
Multi-model ensemble
021110 strategic, defence & security studies
Impact studie
Bias correction
Climate model
Multi-criteria approach
Quantile
- Language
- ISSN
- 1573-0840
0921-030X
In this work we propose an approach for selecting a subset of regional climate models that have a reasonable skill in simulating the past climate and represent changes in average and extreme climatic conditions well. After that, it is carried out a post-processing of the selected models based on quantile mapping correction. The selection of a subset of climate models is a crucial step when conducting climate change impact studies. Performaces of the proposed approach have been evaluated considering as a case study the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Pratolocated in Italy. The climatic parameter adopted for the evaluation of the thermal discomfort due to high temperatures is the humidex index. For this specific test case, the approach defined and used to select an appropriate subset of EURO-CORDEX climate models to evaluate changes in the trend of humidex index and the related uncertainty, proved to be valid.