The Portuguese government launched U-Bike, a nationwide program that aims to encourage university students, faculties and staff to switch to cycling, by providing a long-term bicycle rental scheme. This study aims to analyze the potential of adoption of U-Bike based on a cross-sectional online survey applied to a university campus in Lisbon, where the 1406 responses obtained adequately represent students, faculties, and staff. To minimize unrealistic forecasts striving from socially-desirable responses and unfamiliarity with cycling, stated willingness of U-Bike adoption was compared to the estimated likelihood to regularly cycling to campus. The assessment of realistic and unrealistic options is based on revealed mobility habits and housing constraints that are scrutinized and accounted for with a rule-based methodology, informed by the literature, in which respondents are assigned to five qualitative profiles ordered from "not realistic" to "meet all criteria". The stated interest and willingness to adopt U-Bike discloses an optimism bias of nearly 50% of those who fall in the profiles of not realistic and very unlikely options. The results suggest that 10% of the campuscommunity would most likely adopt the program, having interest and being realistic, and another 7% are interested in the program but do not meet all the mobility and housing requirements to commute by bike to campus, still being a very likely option. The results contribute to estimate bike loan fleet sizes through stated preferences surveys and inform decision-makers when planning for bike loan programs in university campuses.