Quarantine, relaxation and mutation explaining the CoViD-19 epidemic in São Paulo State (Brazil)
- Resource Type
- Authors
- Ariana Campos Yang; Hyun Mo Yang; Castro Ffm; Lombardi Junior Lpp
- Source
- Subject
- Transmission (mechanics)
Geography
Relaxation (psychology)
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
law
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Quarantine
Mutation (genetic algorithm)
Mass vaccination
Hospital care
law.invention
Demography
- Language
BackgroundThe continuous SARS-CoV-2 transmission in several countries could contribute to the mutations’ appearance. The circulation of more virulent variants may increase the number of severe CoViD-19 needing hospital care and fatalities hugely.MethodsThe partial quarantine in São Paulo State and further relaxation associated with the mutations are explained by a mathematical model based on the CoViD-19 natural history encompassing the age-dependent fatality. The model parameters were fitted considering the observed data from São Paulo State.ResultsThe partial quarantine was explained by the less virulent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the relaxation alone could not explain the epidemic observed in São Paulo State. However, more virulent variants plus the transmission among isolated individuals explained the increased CoViD-19 fatalities.ConclusionsThe model described the CoViD-19 epidemic in São Paulo State by considering the partial quarantine, relaxation and mutations. The model provided a potential epidemiological scenario in the absence of mass vaccination.