Bayesian hierarchical models for the prediction of volleyball results
- Resource Type
- Authors
- Andrea Gabrio
- Source
- J Appl Stat
Journal of Applied Statistics, 48(2), 301-321. Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group
- Subject
- FOS: Computer and information sciences
Statistics and Probability
Computer science
Bayesian probability
0211 other engineering and technologies
02 engineering and technology
poisson distribution
Machine learning
computer.software_genre
Poisson distribution
Bayesian statistics
Statistics - Applications
01 natural sciences
Cross-validation
010104 statistics & probability
symbols.namesake
Applications (stat.AP)
0101 mathematics
CROSS-VALIDATION
hierarchical models
021103 operations research
business.industry
ASYMPTOTIC EQUIVALENCE
volleyball
Statistical model
Articles
Variety (cybernetics)
symbols
Artificial intelligence
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
business
computer
- Language
- English
- ISSN
- 0266-4763
Statistical modelling of sports data has become more and more popular in the recent years and different types of models have been proposed to achieve a variety of objectives: from identifying the key characteristics which lead a team to win or lose to predicting the outcome of a game or the team rankings in national leagues. Although not as popular as football or basketball, volleyball is a team sport with both national and international level competitions in almost every country. However, there is almost no study investigating the prediction of volleyball game outcomes and team rankings in national leagues. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of the rankings of volleyball national teams, which also allows to estimate the results of each match in the league. We consider two alternative model specifications of different complexity which are validated using data from the women's volleyball Italian Serie A1 2017-2018 season.