Climate change is viewed as the primary threat to coral reefs, with local pressures exacerbating coral cover decline. The consensus is that improving water quality may increase resilience, but disentangling water quality and temperature impacts is difficult. We used distance-based linear models and random forests to analyze spatiotemporal variation in benthic community structure and interannual changes in the coral assemblage, in relation to specific environmental metrics in Southeast Florida. Temperature accounted for most of the variation, recruitment doubled and interannual increases in coral abundance tripled when mean annual temperature reached 27 °C, until maximum temperatures exceeded 31 °C. Benefits associated with warmer temperatures were negated by poor water quality, as nutrient enrichment was related to increased macroalgal cover, reduced coral recruitment and higher coral partial mortality. We suggest reducing local pressures will contribute to reduced macroalgae and enhance coral recovery, but that temperature is the predominant influence on coral assemblages.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: David S Gilliam reports financial support was provided by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. David S Gilliam reports financial support was provided by Florida Department of Environmental Protection. David S Gilliam reports financial support was provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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