The article considers the modeling of physical objects with a big presence of people. The case of forecasting a possible fire in them is considered. Together with the physical features of these objects, the fire is considered as a complex physical phenomenon. The study of patterns is necessary to predict possible scenarios in the event of a fire. As an example of solving such a problem, the scenario of a possible fire in a shopping and entertainment center is considered. Due to the large crowd of people at this facility, the consequences of a possible fire can have great tragic patterns. A mathematical model is proposed in the calculation. In this mathematical model, the object is represented as a system with its own device and mechanism of functioning. A scheme has been developed for the alignment of forces and means at the time of localization of the fire in accordance with the selected scenario of fire development. Modeling of the possible situation in case of fire is carried out on the example of the Passage shopping and entertainment center in Voronezh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]