To study the thermal aging of nuclear primary pipe material 316LN stainless steel weld, accelerated thermal aging experiment was performed at 400℃ for 15000h. Microstructure evolution of weld after aging was investigated by TEM and HREM. Impact properties of weld thermally aged at different time was measured by Charpy impact test. Meanwhile, taking Charpy impact energy as the standard of thermal aging embrittlement, the thermal kinetics formula was obtained by the fitting method. Finally, the Charpy impact properties of the weld during 60 years of service at the actual operation temperature were estimated by the thermal kinetics formula. The results indicate that the spinodal decomposition occurs in the ferrite of the weld after thermal aging at 400℃ for 1000h, results in α (Fe-rich) and α'(Cr-rich) phases, and meanwhile, the G-phase is precipitated in the ferrite; the spinodal decomposition and the G-phase precipitation lead to the decrease in the impact energy of weld as time prolongs; the prediction results show that the Charpy impact energy of weld decreases quickly in the early 25 years, and then undergoes a slow decrease during the subsequent operation process.