全球变暖导致的水文水资源问题越来越突出,已成为全社会关注的焦点问题之一.本文选择河南省境内5个水文站、44个气象站的气象资料,对径流对气候变化的响应运用多元回归方法作了定量分析,结果表明:年、月径流随降水量的增加而增加;随着平均气温的升高而减少.降水量越少,温度越高,则径流越少;反之降水量越多,温度越低,则径流越多.不同流域的月径流变化对各种气候变化情景的响应表现出一定的差异性,且差异相对年径流变化较小.
Global warming,which has frequently attracted the attention of the society,will possibly change the current regimes of precipitation,hydrological cycle and water resources. Multiple regression methods were used to build the climate-runoff model,and to predict the future climate change by the hydrological and meteorological information of five hydrological stations and 44 wether stations in Henan Province. The results showed: Annual (or monthly) runoff increased with the increase of rainfall and reduced with the average temperature rise. The rainfall the less,the temperatures the higher,and runoff will be the less,and vice versa. On different basin,the monthly runoff changes with various scenarios for response to all kinds of climate change and shows some differences,but the difference is smaller for the annual runoff.